mmaniac

Later today, UFC 86 is going to go down at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas. Headlined by a Light Heavyweight title tilt between champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and challenger Forrest Griffin, the card looks solid and should turn out great. Here I’m going to write up some predictions for the main card.

Starting from the bottom, we’ve got a lightweight fight between Tyson Griffin and Marcus Aurelio. Griffin is an Xtreme Couture fighter based in Vegas and Aurelio trains with the prestigious American Top Team in Florida. Griffin is an up-and-comer with strong wrestling and tenacious groundwork. He is the only man to beat current WEC featherweight champion Urijah Faber and his 11-1 record is blemished only by a close decision loss to fellow UFC lightweight contender Frankie Edgar. Aurelio is a slick submissions fighter and a Pride veteran. He’s been up and down, with a loss in his Pride debut at Bushido 4 to Dokonjonosuke Mishima by split decision. Mishima is a solid fighter, but it’s worth noting that he went 0-2 in his brief UFC career with submission losses to Joe Stevenson and Kenny Florian. Aurelio’s high point in his career was a stunning submission of Pride lightweight champion Takanori Gomi. However that fight was not with the belt on the line, and Aurelio looked flat in his next outing, a decision loss to Mitsuhiro Ishida, before dropping a close decision to Gomi in the rematch. While Aurelio has more fights to his name, I’m going with Griffin in this fight. Tyson outpointed fellow ATT black belt Gleison Tibau (who also fights on this card) in his last bout, and while Aurelio is always a threat on the ground, I think Griffin’s been through enough wars that he’ll stay out of too much trouble. Griffin overwhelms Aurelio with takedowns and ground and pound to earn a unanimous decision.

Next up is a welterweight fight between Josh Koscheck and Chris “Lights Out” Lytle. Lytle’s a long time veteran of the UFC and is definitely the more experienced of the two. Koscheck is an alumnus of TUF season 1, making a name for himself as an explosive wrestler, but he has shown improved standup in his recent fights, especially with his knockout win over Dustin Hazelett. Kos should win this one pretty handily. I don’t see him knocking out Lytle on the feet, but I think his standup, combined with some takedowns and ground and pound, will allow him to win on points. Lytle has lost every time he’s faced a step up in competition (Lawler, Parisyan, Hughes, etc) and I think it will be no different here. This fight should be similar to Lytle’s fight with Hughes, with Koscheck grinding out the decision from top position for most of the 15 minutes.

Joe Stevenson, who recently lost to BJ Penn in a lightweight title fight, takes on Gleison Tibau at 155 pounds. This should be an interesting fight to see how Stevenson bounces back from being dominated and bloodied up by Penn. Tibau’s legit with some solid submissions and his strength is definitely on the ground. Unfortunately that’s where Stevenson’s strength is too, and I think his striking is good enough to set up a takedown into a position that’s advantageous to him. It’s unlikely that Joe Daddy will catch Tibau, a BJJ black belt, in a submission, but he should be able to throw powerful punches and elbows from half guard or side mount. Maybe he locks up an arm while grounding and pounding, but I think it’s more likely that Stevenson will win by TKO sometime in the middle of the 2nd round.

Next is a middleweight contender fight between Ricardo Almeida and Patrick Cote. Almeida took a well documented break from the sport, retiring for four years before returning at UFC 81 with a submission win over Rob Yundt. Cote, a premier Canadien middleweight, burst on the scene with a decision loss to Tito Ortiz at UFC 50, taking the fight on short notice and one weight class higher. However, it seemed for a while that he was unable to win in the big show, before scoring knockouts over Kendall Grove and Drew McFedries. He’s always got a puncher’s chance, but I’m still not quite buying Cote as a viable contender to Anderson Silva’s throne. Almeida’s got decent enough standup to get the fight where he wants it to be, namely the ground. Cote’s submission defense is better than you might think if you’ve only seen his submission losses to Travis Lutter and Joe Doerkson, but Almeida is one of the best grapplers in a weight class that includes ground wizards Dean Lister and Demian Maia. He’ll have to work for it, but I think Almeida locks up an armbar or a choke late in round 1.

Finally we get to the headline matchup between Rampage Jackson and Forrest Griffin. Jackson, an import from Pride via the WFA, is the first man to unify the light heavyweight division, first winning the UFC belt from Chuck Liddell before taking the Pride belt from Dan Henderson by way of a hard fought 5 round unanimous decision. Griffin, winner of TUF season 1, is an incredibly hard worker who’s tremendous cardio is augmented by his courage and high tolerance for pain. He’s also been training with former Pride 205 kingpin Wanderlei Silva, who beat Jackson twice in Pride, scoring violent knockouts both times. Forrest is known for not carrying much power in his hands, but he reportedly broke Silva’s nose in a sparring session, although reports say he also suffered a concussion. Rampage has been at the top of his game, mixing powerful, accurate strikes on the feet, with his vicious takedowns and ground and pound. He should win on paper, but Forrest is the kind of guy you never count out because of his heart and will to win. That and his upset against formerly top ranked LHW Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Although Shogun was clearly injured/out of shape/not in the right mindset, the fact that Griffin dominated him the whole fight before sinking in a rear naked choke to finish is impressive, especially when you consider that Shogun was the last man to beat Jackson, completely mauling him with punches and knees. Everyone’s saying that Griffin’s been having an amazing training camp, and I’m sure he’s going to go into this fight completely prepared. Having said that, I still think Rampage wins this fight. As long as he’s focused and had a good camp himself, he’ll be ready. I don’t think Forrest will be able to dominate in the clinch the same way Silva or Shogun did, and I doubt Rampage will have major problems with his length and kicks. Rampage is smaller but stronger so he’ll take the fight to the ground basically whenever he wants to. Heart can only go so far, as Keith Jardine showed us with his shocking KO over Forrest, and I believe Rampage will do the same, scoring a knockout in the 2nd round.

So there they are. Agree? Disagree? Leave comments or whatever, and enjoy the fights.

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