mmaniac

In an exciting turn of events, I won tickets to go see Affliction: Banned live at the Honda Center this Saturday from fiveouncesofpain.com. So I figured it would be a good time to post some prefight predictions/thoughts about that card, since I’m pretty bad at updating this.

The main PPV portion starts with a light heavyweight bout between Renato “Babalu” Sobral and Mike Whitehead. Babalu is a longtime veteran who was a UFC contender for a while before his controversial bout with David Heath which led to him being released. He’s got a slick jiujitsu game and is one of the best grapplers at 205 lb. Whitehead is a TUF and IFL alum who trains at Xtreme Couture. I honestly don’t know much about him other than he headbutted glass in an Affliction commercial, but by all accounts he’s a tough fighter with an all around game. Still, I don’t think that will help him in this fight since he has not faced the type of competition Babalu has. Sobral’s been in the ring and cage with the best, guys like Liddell, Rua, and even Fedor and I think he’ll be able to catch Whitehead with a submission in the first round. On the other hand, Jason Lambert showed that he’s not nearly invincible, so Whitehead definitely has a pretty good chance in this fight and depending on the odds, bettors might even want to drop some money on him. But as for me, I’m still picking Babalu by submission.

Next is a middleweight tilt between Matt “The Law” Lindland and Fabio Negao. Lindland is coming off an Oregon House of Representatives victory, where he recently won a seat. He’s also a strong wrestler and one of the best at 185. Negao I also don’t know much about, but he’s definitely coming in as an underdog, coming off a loss to UFC contender Rousimar Palhares. Based on his record, he looks like a standup guy, with half of his wins coming by (T)KO. Again like the previous fight, I don’t think that will be much of a factor as Lindland has fought the best guys, even guys like Rampage Jackson and Fedor, who are heavier fighters. I think he controls the fight and finishes Negao on the ground sometime in the 2nd. Once again though, Lindland is vulnerable, as one hit wonder Dave Terrell showed back at UFC 49 with a quick KO. But I don’t think that’s going to happen, so I’ll say Lindland takes it with a ground assault in the 2nd, maybe even locking up a submission to end it.

Getting to the first of three major heavyweight bouts is Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell. Arlovski is a former UFC HW champion, overwhelming many of his opponents with his swift striking, although he’s no slouch on the ground as well. Rothwell is a tough product of the IFL who also has heavy hands. I think this one is a standup affair, ending quickly in the 1st round. Arlovski got tagged by Tim Sylvia in their 2nd fight after knocking him down, but he showed an improved chin in their next matchup. I think he is agile enough to avoid heavy punishment before he lands a big punch on Rothwell, sending him down to the canvas within the first 5 minutes of the fight.

Following that is another HW fight between Josh Barnett and Pedro Rizzo. Barnett had been coming off a tremendous 2006 where he beat Aleksander Emelianenko, Mark Hunt, and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira en route to the finals of Pride’s open weight grand prix where he lost to Mirko Cro Cop. Rizzo is a veteran of the sport with powerful strikes which he has used in the past to finish guys such as Barnett and Arlovski. Rizzo hasn’t fought in almost a year, and even though he won his last two fights, he has not been looking like he did when he was a younger fighter in the UFC. Barnett however has beaten Hidehiko Yoshida and Jeff Monson just this year, and even before that was looking like he might be the man to topple Fedor. Barnett gets his revenge in this fight, finishing Rizzo with a submission in the 2nd round.

Finally, in what is probably one of the most important heavyweight matches in recent history, former Pride kingpin Fedor Emelianenko faces off against former UFC kingpin Tim Sylvia. Fedor is widely considered to be the best fighter on the planet, having only lost once due to a cut by an illegal elbow, and having beaten top ranked fighters like Cro Cop and Nogueira (twice). Sylvia looked like the UFC’s next big star (pun intended) with his fearsome striking ability and 6′8″ frame. Both have faced criticisms, with some arguing that Fedor has not faced top competition and that Sylvia has a plodding, boring style. Nonetheless, these are two of the finest heavyweights in MMA right now, and this should be a telling fight for both guys. Fedor employs good striking to get to his bread and butter: his ground game. He has the fiercest ground and pound in MMA as well as slick submission skills from the top and off his back. Sylvia uses his range to connect with his jab which sets up his power shots he uses to finish fights. His head kick on Tra Telligman is one of the most vicious in MMA, and he knocked down Nogueira with a right hand in their fight, no small feat indeed. This is my upset special, as I believe Sylvia will be able to use his size effectively to win this fight. True, Fedor has fought and defeated bigger and maybe even better opposition, but I think that the timing is right for the Maine-iac to pull off an upset this weekend. Fedor was rocked by Kazuyuki Fujita, a wrestler more known for taking hits than delivering them, and I think Sylvia will be able to land a big punch and capitalize on it to finish the fight. Call me crazy, even I wonder why I’m picking him, but I think his strikes will be able to put Fedor away, or at least earn enough points to win on the judges’ scorecards.

As for the rest of the undercard, here are my picks:

Aleksander Emelianenko vs. Paul Buentello: Emelianenko by KO R1
Vitor Belfort vs. Terry Martin: Martin by KO R2
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Edwin Dewees: Nogueira by submission R1
Savant Young vs. Mark Hominick: Hominick by decision
Justin Levens vs. Ray Lizama: Levens by KO R1
Mike Pyle vs. JJ Ambrose: Pyle by decision

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